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Economic Analysis of Commercial Exploitation of Deep-Sea Polymetallic Nodules
PAN Fang, JIN Qiang, ZHENG Chengrong
Ship & Boat    2024, 35 (06): 136-143.   DOI: 10.19423/j.cnki.31-1561/u.2024.06.013
Abstract8)      PDF (1786KB)(16)       Save
As a pioneering field in marine resource development, deep-sea mining is progressively advancing from theoretical investigation into a stage of commercial exploitation. This study focuses on the economic analysis of commercial mining of deep-sea polymetallic nodules, and summarizes key components and methodologies for economic evaluations. A comprehensive and practical economic analysis framework has been established. Two representative international deep-sea polymetallic nodule mining projects have been selected for economic assessment and comparative analysis using the aforementioned framework. Through sensitivity analysis, the potential impacts of uncertainty factors on project economic benefits are evaluated, providing decision-makers with scientifically grounded support for investment decisions.
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Research of Collection Path for Commercial Exploitation of Deep-Sea Polymetallic Nodules
PAN Fang
Ship & Boat    2024, 35 (06): 37-46.   DOI: 10.19423/j.cnki.31-1561/u.2024.06.004
Abstract6)      PDF (2613KB)(6)       Save
With the acceleration of commercial exploitation of deep-sea minerals, previous research on single collector sea trials is no longer able to meet new requirements, and there is an urgent need to carry out relevant planning and research for overall linkage mining mode. This article aims at the need to develop China’s capabilities for safe and efficient commercial exploitation of deep-sea minerals. It systematically outlines the scale, planning principles, and linkage control requirements of commercial exploitation of deep-sea polymetallic nodules. Four collaborative collection path schemes with multiple collectors are designed, and through comparative analysis, more efficient schemes are selected. Finally, suggestions for the development of deep-sea mining vessels are summarized. The research results can provide ideas for China's subsequent in-situ sea trials and commercial exploitation.
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Overview of the Development of Equipment and Technology for Deep-Sea Polymetallic Nodule Mining
FEI Long, ZHENG Chengrong, JIN Qiang, PAN Fang
Ship & Boat    2024, 35 (06): 1-14.   DOI: 10.19423/j.cnki.31-1561/u.2024.06.001
Abstract21)      PDF (6981KB)(36)       Save
With the increasing depletion of global land resources, deep-sea polymetallic nodules, as a potential and abundant mineral resource, have attracted widespread international attention. This paper systematically elaborates on the operational process and equipment composition of deep-sea polymetallic nodule mining, reviews the progress of domestic and foreign experimental activities in the field of deep-sea polymetallic nodule mining, and focuses on sorting out the key equipment and technologies applied or developed globally in aspects such as deep-sea mining platforms, underwater collection systems, mineral lifting systems, and environmental monitoring systems. After analyzing the gap in the development of domestic equipment technology, this paper puts forward targeted suggestions, aiming to promote the development of China’s deep-sea polymetallic nodule mining equipment technology, in order to realize the development and utilization of deep-sea mineral resources.
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Review of World Shipping Market in 2023 and Prospect in 2024
WEI Mei, ZHOU Yilai, GAO Jue, WANG Yingyi, PAN Fang
Ship & Boat    2024, 35 (01): 1-18.   DOI: 10.19423/j.cnki.31-1561/u.2024.01.001
Abstract476)      PDF (4676KB)(984)       Save
In 2023, the global economic growth rate slowed down from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.1%, but showing significant resilience with accelerating global economic growth differentiation among different economies. With the relaxation of global epidemic control and the increase of geopolitical conflicts, the commodity trade has been disturbed, and the seaborne trade is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2023. The market fundamentals of the shipbuilding industry are stable and positive. The key market indicators maintain growth with a year-on-year increase of 25% in new ship orders and a 12% increase in completed deliveries in terms of deadweight tonnage. Among them, new orders for oil tankers increased by 356.6% year-on-year, and new orders for bulk carriers increased by 33% year-on-year, but container ships and gas carriers fell back. Among the major shipbuilding countries, China’s shipbuilding industry stays ahead with new ship orders accounting for 68% of the global market share. The orders for dual-fuel vessels using alternative fuels continue to grow, accounting for 34% of global orders. The shipbuilding industry is expected to maintain an upward trend in 2024, especially for bulk carriers and oil tankers. The acceleration of the decarbonization process and the development of artificial intelligence technology will also bring opportunities and challenges to the high-quality development of the shipping industry.
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Review of World Shipping Market in 2022 and Prospect in 2023
WEI Mei, PAN Fang, WANG Yingyi, ZHOU Yilai
Ship & Boat    2023, 34 (02): 14-32.   DOI: 10.19423/j.cnki.31-1561/u.2023.02.014
Abstract507)      PDF (5962KB)(1361)       Save
Affected by factors such as monetary policy, geopolitical conflicts and the ongoing COVID-19, the macro-economy in 2022 showed a weakening trend after a brief economic recovery in 2021, and the pattern of maritime trade developed towards regionalization. As a result, the new shipbuilding market in 2022 showed an overall downward trend, with a year-on-year decline of 30.6%. Container ships, bulk carriers, oil tankers and offshore engineering vessels all showed downward trends, among them oil tankers showed the highest decline of 72.0%.Meanwhile, LNG carriers and Ro-Ro ships showed an upward trend, with an increase of 88.0% and 135.1%, respectively. Limited by the labor market and capacity adjustment of major shipbuilding domestic industries such as China and South Korea, the completion of shipbuilding in 2022 fell by 6.9% year-on-year. The orders at hand also decreased in 2022 with a decline of 7.5% year-on-year. Under the influence of environmental protection regulations, green fuel ships have developed rapidly, accounting for 44.5% of new ship orders, which becomes an important competitive area for shipbuilding countries. The global economic growth will continue to decline in 2023, which is expected to have a negative impact on the ship market. However, the high value-added ships such as LNG ships and green ships will continue to be popular. The global ship products will accelerate the development towards green and intelligent.
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Application Forecast of Alternative Fuels for International Ships
WANG Yingyi, JIN Qiang, PAN Fang
Ship & Boat    2022, 33 (05): 21-28.   DOI: 10.19423/j.cnki.31-1561/u.2022.05.021
Abstract367)      PDF (2336KB)(666)       Save
Starting from the investigation of domestic ship owners, the application of alternative fuels to international ships has been analyzed in view of the concerns of ship owners, such as fuel supply, main engine technology and fueling infrastructure. The results show that LNG, as the most mature alternative fuel at present, possesses great potential for further development in the short and medium term, while methanol and ammonia have increasing share in the medium and long term. It is predicted that the proportion of ocean-going alternative fuel powered ships in 2030 and 2040 is only 5% and 11%. In order to cope with the general trend in the future, it is necessary to accelerate the development of the methanol and ammonia internal combustion engines suitable for ocean-going ships, and launch demonstration projects of low-carbon synthetic fuels such as ammonia and methanol as soon as possible, as well as simultaneously develop corresponding innovative ship types to achieve independent control of the main engine and fuel supply.
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State-of-the-Art of Intelligent Ship Research in Japan, Korea, Europe and Its Inspiration to China
WEI Mei, PAN Fang, ZHANG Dalei
Ship & Boat    2022, 33 (02): 13-21.   DOI: 10.19423/j.cnki.31-1561/u.2022.02.013
Abstract447)      PDF (765KB)(1250)       Save
Intelligent ships are of growing concern in the shipbuilding industry with the development of intelligent technology. With the increasing demands of the shipping industry for environmental protection, safety and economy, major shipbuilding countries in the world, such as China, Japan, South Korea and Europe, have put into the relevant research of intelligent ships. However, each country has different characteristics in the research on the intelligent ship due to the different historical background and state-of-the-art of their respective shipbuilding industry. The state-of-the-art of typical intelligent ship projects in Japan, South Korean and Europe has been investigated to analyze their respective research routes and characteristics from various aspects. It shows that the intelligent ship research in Japan is dominated by the shipping company with the promotion mode from local to overall and the emphasis on the establishment of international standards. In South Korea, it is dominated by shipbuilding enterprises with university-industry cooperation, characterized of outstanding strength on the information industry and developing with degrees of automation. In Europe, it is dominated by enterprises and research institution aiming at unmanned ships by transformation of existing ships. The inspiration on the intelligent ship development in China is finally analyzed based on the investigation of the development of the intelligent ships in Japan, South Korean and Europe.
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Review of World Shipping Market in 2021 and Prospects in 2022
WEI Mei, PAN Fang, WANG Yingyi, DU Liang
Ship & Boat    2022, 33 (01): 1-18.   DOI: 10.19423/j.cnki.31-1561/u.2022.01.001
Abstract455)      PDF (5694KB)(648)       Save
This article reviews the world economy, shipping and shipbuilding market in 2021, and the prospects of the shipbuilding market in 2022. In 2021, with the development of COVID-19, the fiscal and monetary policies launched by the major economies boosted the economic recovery to varying degrees, and the global economy rebounded as a whole, resulting in the growth of the international maritime trade. Each segment of the shipping market performs differently due to the different supply and demand. The bulk cargo market recovered strongly, the container transportation market was in high demand, and the offshore engineering market performed well, however the oil shipping market was in a downturn. The international new shipbuilding market was active in 2021, with new ship orders increased by 80% compared with 2020, and the new orders of container ships and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ships performed well. Looking ahead to 2022, high infrastructure demand and limited fleet capacity will continue to support the bulk carrier market. The increase of the global oil supply and demand makes a positive oil market outlook. The orders and deliveries of the container vessels will continue to remain high. The liquefied gas carrier shipping market will continue to maintain a high cyclical fluctuations with the regional differentiation. The offshore oil and gas production will continue to recover. Green and intelligence are still the two hot issues in the shipping market.
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Review of World Shipping Market in 2019 and Prospects in 2020
QI Bin, DU Liang, WANG Ying-yi, PAN Fang, SHEN Sun-wen
Ship & Boat    2020, 31 (01): 1-14.   DOI: 10.19423/j.cnki.31-1561/u.2020.01.001
Abstract234)            Save
This paper reviews world economy, shipping and shipbuilding market in 2019, and forecasts the market in 2020. In 2019, the growth of global economy was slowing. Factors such as trade conflicts and geopolitical tensions have become huge obstacles to the current economic growth. Uncertainties in the shipping market has increased with a downward tendency for the overall shipping market, but the oil transportation market is unique. The order tonnage of the new ship market has generally dropped, and only the oil ship market has performed well. The world economic growth in 2020 is expected to be better than that in 2019, but there is still a downside risk without an optimistic prospect. The shipping market will move forward under pressure, while some market segments have better prospects. The sulfur restriction legislation will result in suspension of some transportation capacity, but the fundamentals of the imbalance between supply and demand have not changed. The world's new shipbuilding market is unlikely to show significant improvement in general. Green, intelligent and upgrading are the main motive source of the market growth. In addition, the recent outbreak of the new coronavirus in China will also have a certain negative impact on the shipping and shipbuilding market in the short term. And uncertainties are expected to increase in the medium term, however, it will not have a significant impact in the long term.
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