Abstract: This paper reviews world economy, shipping and shipbuilding market in 2019, and forecasts the market in 2020. In 2019, the growth of global economy was slowing. Factors such as trade conflicts and geopolitical tensions have become huge obstacles to the current economic growth. Uncertainties in the shipping market has increased with a downward tendency for the overall shipping market, but the oil transportation market is unique. The order tonnage of the new ship market has generally dropped, and only the oil ship market has performed well. The world economic growth in 2020 is expected to be better than that in 2019, but there is still a downside risk without an optimistic prospect. The shipping market will move forward under pressure, while some market segments have better prospects. The sulfur restriction legislation will result in suspension of some transportation capacity, but the fundamentals of the imbalance between supply and demand have not changed. The world's new shipbuilding market is unlikely to show significant improvement in general. Green, intelligent and upgrading are the main motive source of the market growth. In addition, the recent outbreak of the new coronavirus in China will also have a certain negative impact on the shipping and shipbuilding market in the short term. And uncertainties are expected to increase in the medium term, however, it will not have a significant impact in the long term.

Key words: world economy, shipping market, shipbuilding market, sulfur restriction legislation, moving forward under pressure

摘要： 回顾了2019年世界经济、航运、造船市场,并对2020年进行展望。2019年世界经济增长放缓,贸易冲突、地缘政治局势紧张等因素已成为当下经济增长的巨大障碍,航运市场不确定因素增多,整体趋于下行,但油运市场一枝独秀,新船市场订单吨位量总体有所回落,仅油船市场表现突出; 2020年世界经济增长预期好于2019年,不过依旧面临下行风险,不容乐观,航运市场将在压力中前行,部分细分市场则前景较好,限硫令也会带来部分运力的“暂停”,但供需失衡的基本面并没有改变,世界新造船市场整体而言很难在短期内有明显起色,绿色、智能、升级换代是市场增长的主要动力来源。此外,近期我国爆发的新型冠状病毒疫情也将在短期内对航运和造船市场产生一定负面影响,中期的不确定性预计会增强,长期则不会有显著影响。

关键词: 世界经济, 航运市场, 造船市场, 限硫令, 压力中前行