Abstract: Large crowds may show special evacuation behaviors in emergency situations due to conformity. The three-layer cruise ship in the European “SAFEGUARD” project has been examined in order to study the role of conformity in the emergency evacuation of cruise ships. A simulation model is established by using the Anylogic evacuation simulation platform, and the evacuation logic is written according to the cabin layout, the number and distribution of personnel of the cruise ship. The corresponding results are obtained by multiple personnel evacuation simulations. The reliability and accuracy of the simulation model are then verified by comparing the simulation results with the project dataset. The influence of different degrees of conformity on evacuation results is explored by adjusting the size of conformity factors based on the verified model. The results are compared with the prototype data. The results show that the visual field of the cruise ship is relatively narrow with fewer evacuation passages. The evacuation efficiency of cruise ships gradually decreases with the increasing degree of conformity, resulting in extended time to complete evacuation. Based on the actual situation of cruise ships, suggestions that are beneficial for evacuation are proposed to improve the evacuation efficiency, such as issuing instruction information, planning clear paths, and increasing emergency awareness training.

Key words: cruise ship, emergency evacuation, personnel evacuation simulation, conformity

摘要： 大规模人群在紧急情况下会因从众心理而表现出特殊的疏散行为。为研究从众心理对邮轮应急疏散效率的影响,该文选择欧洲“SAFEGUARD”项目中的3层邮轮作为研究对象,使用AnyLogic疏散仿真平台建立仿真模型,根据邮轮的船舱布置、人员的数量及分布情况来编写疏散逻辑,进行多次人员疏散仿真实验得到相应结果,并将模型仿真结果与项目数据集对比,验证了仿真模型的可靠性和准确性。基于该模型,通过调整从众因子的大小以探究不同程度从众心理对疏散结果的影响,并将结果与原模型数据进行对比。结果表明：因邮轮上的视野较为狭隘且疏散通道数量较少,故随着从众程度的不断增加,人员疏散效率逐渐降低且完成疏散的时间逐渐延长。建议结合邮轮实际情况,采取指令信息发布、规划清晰路径、增加应急意识培训等方式提升疏散效率。

关键词: 邮轮, 应急疏散, 人员疏散仿真, 从众心理