Abstract: The maneuvering motions of ice breakers are the determining factor of the maneuverability. The ice force (moment) is calculated by using a semi-analytic icebreaking force decomposition model based on the mathematical model of maneuvering motion. The corresponding influences of parameters, such as ice thickness, ice strength, main engine power and rudder angle, on the maneuvering motion are also analyzed. Then the quantitative law of the combined effects of parameters is obtained based on the Least Square Support Vector Regression (LS-SVR) method for the intelligent prediction of the maneuverability of the icebreakers. The navigation trajectory can be predicted in real-time under the current control instructions and sea ice information by using this model, which can be used to assess the effectiveness of the avoidance strategy in advance and to improve the navigation safety.

Key words: ice breaker, maneuvering motion, intelligent prediction, sea ice

摘要： 破冰船操纵运动特征是其机动能力的决定性因素。该文以操纵运动数学模型为基础,采用半解析型破冰力分解模型计算冰力(矩),分析冰厚、冰强度、主机功率和舵角等参数对操纵运动的影响;进而基于最小二乘支持向量机回归方法获取参数联合影响的定量规律,实现破冰船操纵运动性能的智能预报。该模型可实时预报当前操控指令与海冰信息下的航行轨迹,可用于超前评估避让策略的有效性,提升航行安全。

关键词: 破冰船, 操纵运动, 智能预报, 海冰