Abstract: In 2025, the global new shipbuilding market maintained its recent positive momentum, characterized by full orderbooks and sustained high prices, successfully concluding the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025). China's shipbuilding industry continued to lead global growth, with all major indicators reaching historic highs and further consolidating its position as the world leader. Looking ahead to 2026, operating at a market peak demands heightened caution. Potential risks such as geopolitical competition, demand adjustments, and financial volatility require vigilant attention. Crucially, it is essential to analyze whether the underlying supportive factors will fade, shift, or strengthen—especially regarding the sustainability of shipping demand, the scale of vessel scrapping, and the absorption of new tonnage capacity. These issues represent the core uncertainties and primary sources of divergence in market trend judgments. This paper reviews the development of the global new shipbuilding market in 2025, analyzes the key variables that will influence the market in 2026, forecasts future trends, and provides insights to the industry for its stable development.

Key words: new shipbuilding market, market environment analysis, market outlook, risk and challenge

摘要： 2025年,世界新造船市场延续近年的景气态势,手持订单充盈、价格保持高位,实现了“十四五”时期的圆满收官。中国造船业继续引领全球增长,主要指标创历史新高,巩固了其全球造船业的领导者地位。面向2026年,市场将继续保持高位,故更需敬畏市场,对地缘博弈、需求调整、金融波动等潜在风险仍保持警惕,分析支撑市场高位的因素,判断有利因素是消退、转换还是增强,即：海运需求能否持续,拆解运力能否扩量,新增运力能否消化。这正是当下业界最为关注、最具不确定性的焦点问题,也是判断市场趋势时产生分歧的主要根源。该文通过总结2025年世界新造船市场发展,分析2026年影响市场发展的关键变量,预测未来走势,为行业稳定发展提供参考。

关键词: 新造船市场, 市场环境分析, 市场展望, 风险与挑战