To address the issue of ship-to-bank collision probability for large container ships under the influence of wind loads and bank effects in port channels, this paper proposes a prediction approach based on maneuverability analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Taking a 10,000 TEU container ship navigating in the Yangshan Port channel as the research scenario, probability distribution models for ship route deviation and wind conditions are constructed using AIS (Automatic Identification System) data and meteorological records. Numerical simulation is conducted using the MMG (Maneuvering Modeling Group) model, accounting for stochastic factors such as ship speed, container stacking configuration, wind speed, wind direction, and ship-to-bank distance. Through maneuvering motion simulations, the relationship between the ship-to-bank collision probability and ship speed, as well as stacking pattern, is evaluated. Results show that maintaining 40% of the service speed significantly reduces the collision probability. The aerodynamic characteristics of stacking patterns have an important influence on the stopping and collision avoidance process. The comb-shaped stacking pattern has a higher probability of control loss but a lower final collision probability, while the empty aft deck stacking pattern shows the opposite effect. This research provides a quantitative analytical approach for identifying the environmental factors that affect the navigation safety of ships entering and leaving ports, as well as for supporting ship maneuvering decision-making.

A three-dimensional model of propeller and shafting has been established to study the influence of the elastic effect of the marine propeller on the hydrodynamic performance and structural characteristics. Taking two materials of nickel aluminum bronze alloy and glass fiber as the representatives of “rigid propeller” and “elastic propeller”, respectively, the two-way fluid structure interaction (FSI) of the propellers of these two materials is calculated in a uniform flow field. The hydrodynamics characteristics such as the fluctuation pressure, blade pressure distribution and propulsion performance, and the structural characteristics such as the blade deformation and maximum equivalent stress are compared and analyzed. The results show that the elastic effect of the blade increases the fluctuation pressure in the flow field, resulting in more uniform pressure distribution of the blade and reduction of the thrust and torque, but the propulsion efficiency varies at different advance speeds. At the same time, the elastic effect of the blade increases the blade deformation and reduces the maximum equivalent stress. This study can provide references for the propeller performance calculation and the vibration and noise reduction design of the stern for larger ships, especially for ships with long shafting and large skew propellers and underwater vehicles.