关键词: 极地, 海冰, 业务化预报系统

Abstract: Under the background of global warming and rapid reduction of the Arctic sea ice, polar sea ice forecasting is playing an increasingly important role. Improving the ability of polar sea ice forecasting is an important guarantee for polar ship navigation, polar energy development and protection. In recent years, some countries have developed and established polar sea ice forecasting systems, and the operational forecasting of polar sea ice has advanced substantially. By developing, testing and verifying the numerical solution of sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics, the model predictions are increasingly close to the observed values, so as to achieve the goal of flexible and powerful sea ice simulation and prediction. Aimed at timely and accurate polar sea ice forecasts for Chinese National Arctic/Antarctic Research Expedition and Arctic commercial navigation, the operational polar sea ice forecasting systems in the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China assimilate the satellite-observed near-real-time sea ice concentration, sea ice thickness and sea surface temperature data on a daily basis, with a capacity of coordinated adjustments of relative tracers and momentum at the ice-ocean interface. This paper briefly introduces state-of-the-art operational polar sea ice forecasting systems in the world, and prospects the potential difficulties and problems in developing sea ice numerical forecasting skill in the future.

Key words: polar, sea ice, operational forecasting system