关键词: 新造船市场, 市场环境分析, 市场展望, 风险与挑战

Abstract: In 2025, the global new shipbuilding market maintained its recent positive momentum, characterized by full orderbooks and sustained high prices, successfully concluding the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025). China's shipbuilding industry continued to lead global growth, with all major indicators reaching historic highs and further consolidating its position as the world leader. Looking ahead to 2026, operating at a market peak demands heightened caution. Potential risks such as geopolitical competition, demand adjustments, and financial volatility require vigilant attention. Crucially, it is essential to analyze whether the underlying supportive factors will fade, shift, or strengthen—especially regarding the sustainability of shipping demand, the scale of vessel scrapping, and the absorption of new tonnage capacity. These issues represent the core uncertainties and primary sources of divergence in market trend judgments. This paper reviews the development of the global new shipbuilding market in 2025, analyzes the key variables that will influence the market in 2026, forecasts future trends, and provides insights to the industry for its stable development.

Key words: new shipbuilding market, market environment analysis, market outlook, risk and challenge