Abstract: The Arctic passages have been the focus of the international community due to its remarkable strategic and economic value. The normalization and scalization of the Arctic shipping becomes possible in the future driven by the combination of climate change, advance of science and technology and gradual improvement of the security system. The current ship types sailing in the Arctic have shown a diversification trend, forming a window period and seasonal shipping mode. The development of the Arctic shipping in the future also faces many challenges and constraints. Moreover, political factors will raise uncertainties to the Arctic passage. This paper prospects and discusses the development and mode of the Arctic shipping in the future, and puts forward the key problems to be solved in the development of the normalization of the shipping in Arctic.

Key words: Arctic, shipping mode, normalization, constraint

摘要： 北极航道显著的战略价值和经济价值使其成为国际社会关注的焦点。在气候变化、科技进步和保障体系逐渐完善的共同推动下,未来北极实现常态化、规模化通航成为可能。当前航行北极的船型已呈现多样化趋势,形成窗口期和季节性通航模式。未来北极航运的发展还面临诸多挑战和制约,与此同时,政策因素更增加了北极航道开发的不确定性。该文对未来北极航运发展趋势和模式进行展望和探讨,并提出发展北极常态化航运需要解决的关键问题。

关键词: 北极, 航运模式, 常态化, 制约因素