Abstract: To address the issue of ship-to-bank collision probability for large container ships under the influence of wind loads and bank effects in port channels, this paper proposes a prediction approach based on maneuverability analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Taking a 10,000 TEU container ship navigating in the Yangshan Port channel as the research scenario, probability distribution models for ship route deviation and wind conditions are constructed using AIS (Automatic Identification System) data and meteorological records. Numerical simulation is conducted using the MMG (Maneuvering Modeling Group) model, accounting for stochastic factors such as ship speed, container stacking configuration, wind speed, wind direction, and ship-to-bank distance. Through maneuvering motion simulations, the relationship between the ship-to-bank collision probability and ship speed, as well as stacking pattern, is evaluated. Results show that maintaining 40% of the service speed significantly reduces the collision probability. The aerodynamic characteristics of stacking patterns have an important influence on the stopping and collision avoidance process. The comb-shaped stacking pattern has a higher probability of control loss but a lower final collision probability, while the empty aft deck stacking pattern shows the opposite effect. This research provides a quantitative analytical approach for identifying the environmental factors that affect the navigation safety of ships entering and leaving ports, as well as for supporting ship maneuvering decision-making.

Key words: ship maneuverability, collision probability, container ship, bank effect, wind load

摘要： 针对大型集装箱船在港口航道内受风载荷与岸壁效应影响下的撞岸概率问题,该文提出一种基于操纵性分析与蒙特卡洛模拟的船岸碰撞概率预报方法。文章以1艘10 000 TEU集装箱船在洋山港航道内航行为研究场景,结合船舶自动识别系统数据与气象资料,构建船舶航线偏移与风况的概率分布模型;采用分离式模型进行操纵运动数值计算,综合考虑航速、集装箱堆垛形式、风速、风向及船岸距离等多种随机因素,通过操纵运动仿真分析评估了船岸碰撞概率与航速、堆垛形式间的关系。结果表明：集装箱船维持在40%服务航速可显著降低碰撞概率;堆垛形式的气动特性对停船避碰过程具有重要影响,其中梳齿状堆垛失控概率较高但最终碰撞概率较低,而船尾甲板空置堆垛呈现相反效果。该研究为识别影响船舶进出港航行安全的环境因素以及船舶操纵决策提供了定量化分析手段。

关键词: 船舶操纵性, 碰撞概率, 集装箱船, 岸壁效应, 风载荷